Sep 23–26, 2019

When Holt-Winters is better than machine learning

Anais Dotis (InfluxData)
2:05pm2:45pm Thursday, September 26, 2019
Location: 1A 08/10

Who is this presentation for?

Data Scientist, Developer, Analyst, Beginner

Level

Beginner

Description

Machine Learning (ML) gets a lot of hype, but its Classical predecessors are still immensely powerful, especially in the time series space. Error, Trend, Seasonality Forecast (ETS), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Holt-Winters are three Classical methods that are not only incredibly popular but also excellent time series predictors. In fact, these Classical Methods outperform several other ML methods including Long Short Term Memory (LTSM) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) in One-Step Forecasting. In this talk, I’ll show you how the Holt-Winters forecasting algorithm works. Then we’ll use the HOLT_WINTERS() function with InfluxData to make our own time series forecast.

Prerequisite knowledge

Calculus

What you'll learn

I will be showing: -When to use Holt-Winters -How Single Exponential Smoothing works -The optimization for Single Exponential Smoothing -How Single Exponential Smoothing relates to Triple Exponential Smoothing/Holt-Winters -How you can use InfluxDB’s built-in Multiplicative Holt-Winters function to generate predictions on your time series data
Photo of Anais Dotis

Anais Dotis

InfluxData

Anais Dotis-Georgiou is a Developer Advocate for InfluxData with a passion for making data beautiful with the use of Data Analytics, AI, and Machine Learning. She takes the data that she collects, does a mix of research, exploration, and engineering to translate the data into something of function, value, and beauty. When she is not behind a screen, you can find her outside drawing, stretching, or chasing after a soccer ball.

Leave a Comment or Question

Help us make this conference the best it can be for you. Have questions you'd like this speaker to address? Suggestions for issues that deserve extra attention? Feedback that you'd like to share with the speaker and other attendees?

Join the conversation here (requires login)

Contact us

confreg@oreilly.com

For conference registration information and customer service

partners@oreilly.com

For more information on community discounts and trade opportunities with O’Reilly conferences

strataconf@oreilly.com

For information on exhibiting or sponsoring a conference

Contact list

View a complete list of Strata Data Conference contacts