When Pfizer approved Viagra for commercial use in 1998, they enjoyed a handsome 38% increase in stock price the following year. This spike reflects an intuitive notion: a winning record in the lengthy and costly drug passage process should be the key determiner of a pharmaceutical company’s financial success. But how do we distinguish between wonder drugs and duds, in both patient health and the bottom line?
The Freedom of Information Act requires the FDA to release drug passage data to the public. This data includes basic information, such as type of drug and method of delivery, as well as chemical information such as molecular mass and bond types. Studies suggest that several of these factors can determine a drug’s success through the three-phase approval process. The magnitude of a drug’s success in the markets, however, remains largely an open question.
Our talk explores the marriage of pharmaceutical and financial data. In particular, Joe Klobusicky, Ali Habib, and Kate Volkova will investigate how a company’s industrial features drive a drug’s passage, as well as the inverse question of how drug passage determines financial growth. While we will highlight several interesting examples of individual companies, our focus is predictive, and therefore aims to make forecasting statements over the pharmaceutical industry as a whole.
Joe Klobusicky is an applied mathematics/predictive analyst at Geisinger Health System. His interests include recommender systems, natural language processing, and Markov theory with a slant toward bioinformatics and pharmacoeconomics.
Ali Habib is a medical student at Northwestern University’s Feiberg School of Medicine. In addition to beginning a radiology residency, Ali is also interested in data science applied toward analysis in financial markets.
Ekaterina Volkova is a PhD candidate in finance at Cornell University. Among other topics, Ekaterina is interested in using financial data to track likely instances of insider trading.
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