Hardware, Software & the Internet of Things
June 23–25, 2015 • San Francisco, CA

Being Bayesian: Strategies for modeling before, during, and after product creation

1:15pm–1:55pm Thursday, 06/25/2015
Heavy Industry/Intelligent Enterprise
Location: Fleet Room (Bldg D)
Average rating: *****
(5.00, 2 ratings)
Slides:   1-PDF 

Prerequisite Knowledge

Design Thinking, Simulation, Technical Architecture, Business Strategy


Traditional business strategy relies on statistically significant sets of data gathered over time. That approach is becoming less and less useful, for a number of reasons:

1) Product life cycles are often shorter than corporate planning cycles
2) Many new IoT products and services have never existed before, so no data exists yet
3) IoT systems continually evolve and change as they grow and interact with other systems around them, making measurement of their behavior and performance a constantly moving target.

Clearly, a revolution in business strategy is needed.

This talk will outline what we call Bayesian Strategy: A variety of methods used by strategists and designers at frog and elsewhere to create continually evolving models of products and their ecosystems, and the data they may eventually generate and consume. This approach yields results that make business leaders less wrong over time by allowing:

- The business to understand whether a product concept is worth pursuing
- The design team to know what kind of behavior they might encounter
- The tech architects to see how things might scale
- The product team to start to understand what sort of data will be generated.

Don’t wait until you’ve launched before you start modeling. These methods are used through the entire product lifecycle, during product concept and design phases, as well as testing and production. Learn how to put the Bayesian Strategy to work for your business today, so that you can be less wrong about tomorrow.

Photo of Patrick Kalaher

Patrick Kalaher


Patrick Kalaher is vice president, Technology Strategy at frog. For more than ten years, Patrick has consulted for leading high-tech, telecom, utility, and pharmaceutical firms, driving transformation and strategic product development from the executive suite down to line of business and operations. He is a systems architect by training, with over 19 years of experience in cloud computing, enterprise-wide SOA, and large-scale, internet, and M2M architecture. Patrick has an extensive background in product ideation, product strategy, and implementation across North America, Europe, and Asia.