There is no denying the rapidly growing appeal of web-based prediction markets. They are the Web 2.0 notion of wisdom of crowds in action, with a demonstrated knack for out-predicting experts on elections and sporting events.
But can they ever outperform the biggest and most liquid prediction market of them all, the stock market? Or, instead, are they best suited to handicapping sports, entertainment, and politics?
We have brought together a great group of people to think about the future of prediction markets, including the foremost scholar of such markets, Justin Wolfers, and the CEOs of two of the largest and most liquid prediction markets.
None of us is as smart as all of us. Wall Street, Web 2.0 style:
Jason is the founder of HighStep Capital, an innovative long/short equity hedge fund that combines fundamental research with advanced data mining technology to trade technology stocks. He previously worked at J. Goldman & Co and Goldman Sachs, where he covered the Internet sector. Jason holds and MBA from Cornell University and BS from Babson College.
Dr. Kaplan is Founder and CEO of PredictWallStreet Inc., a Silicon Valley company specializing in applications that process the collective intelligence of online investors to generate an edge in the market. Previously, Dr. Kaplan spent twelve years as CEO of iQ Company and has also worked at IBM and at the University of California Santa Cruz as a visiting professor in Computer Science. Dr. Kaplan holds MS and PhD degrees from Carnegie Mellon University where he co-authored papers with a Nobel-Prize winning economist. He is a member of the scientific research society Sigma Xi and has authored and co-authored more than 30 publications, including a book and eight patents in the software field.
Adam Siegel is a co-founder and the CEO of Inkling Markets, a Chicago-based
prediction market company that helps organizations and individuals tap into
the collective wisdom of their employees, peers, and customers to improve
forecasting processes, predict key corporate metrics, identify promising
future innovations, and forge new communication and collaboration channels.
Previously, Adam worked at Accenture, a global consulting firm where he
served over a dozen clients across multiple industries. Adam holds a
Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Indiana University.
Justin Wolfers is an assistant professor of economics in the Business and Public Policy Department at the Wharton School. He is a visiting scholar with the San Francisco Federal Reserve, a Research Fellow with the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn, and a research affiliate with the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London. He was previously an Assistant Professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, and an economist with the Reserve Bank of Australia. Dr. Wolfers earned his Ph.D. in economics in June 2001 from Harvard University, and was a Fulbright, Knox and Menzies Scholar and a fellow with the MacArthur Network on Inequality and Social Interactions. He earned his undergraduate degree in Economics his native Australia at the University of Sydney in 1994, winning the University Medal.
Professor Wolfers is a leading academic expert on prediction markets, but also does research in labor economics, macroeconomics, law and economics, social policy and behavioral economics. Beyond research, he is a popular MBA teacher, a columnist with the Wall Street Journal and a frequent contributor to the public debate.
Biography coming soon.
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